Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 20?

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Market context

Shanghai Pudong International Airport is the settlement point, so the key variable is the *highest* temperature recorded there during the day rather than the citywide reading or a forecast high. June is already a warm, often humid month at Pudong: WeatherSpark puts the average daily high at about 77°F to 83°F across June, with the hot season beginning around 17 June and June also being the month with the most wet days on average.[1][2]

That context helps explain why a 0% yes price is not a statement that a hot day is impossible, only that the market is treating the exact settlement band as extremely unlikely from current information. On a day-by-day basis, Shanghai’s airport weather can still be lifted or capped by cloud, rain bands and sea-breeze effects, and a single afternoon observation is enough to change the day’s maximum for settlement.[2][3] Recent station-facing reporting already shows warm, humid conditions in Shanghai, with BBC Weather noting 28°C at Hongqiao and light rain showers early on 20 June, which is consistent with a muggy but not necessarily extreme setup.[4]

Traders should watch the Pudong station observations through the day, especially any update showing a sharp break into stronger sunshine or a drier air mass, because that is what would matter for the final recorded maximum on Wunderground.[3][5] AccuWeather’s public forecast for Pudong on 20 June points to a partly sunny, very warm day with a high near 87°F, which supports a broadly warm baseline even if the exact hourly peak remains dependent on cloud cover and rainfall timing.[6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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FAQ

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