Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 22?

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Market context

Shanghai Pudong International Airport’s June climate usually sits in the mid-20s to low 30s Celsius, with average daily highs rising through the month and rarely exceeding 33°C. WeatherSpark’s climate normals put June highs at roughly 77°F to 83°F, with the hottest part of the season beginning around 17 June, which means the market is pricing a very warm but not extreme day[1][6].

The 0% YES price is consistent with a view that the eventual airport high will land below the market’s upper settlement bands, but Shanghai’s summer profile leaves room for a late-june surge if sunshine and light winds combine. AccuWeather’s June 2026 outlook for Pudong shows highs ranging from 77°F to 96°F, underlining that upper-30s Celsius readings are within the forecast envelope even if they are not the base case[2]. Historical airport climate guidance also notes that summer highs in Shanghai can exceed 30°C regularly, with 35°C possible in strong heat[7].

The key catalysts are the daily forecast updates, cloud cover, wind and any pre-frontal warm air pushing inland before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. The market resolves to the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station on 22 June, so the relevant move is not the daily mean but the peak observation during the day[3][5]. Traders should watch the airport station’s short-range temperature curve and any shift in the NOAA-linked 72-hour timeseries, which can quickly change the probability of a 30°C-plus print[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

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FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

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