Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the highest temperature recorded on 30 June 2026 at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, with the market currently pricing a 29% chance that the temperature falls into the specific range defined for a "YES" outcome. Historical data shows June highs at this station typically climb from 77°F to 83°F (25°C to 28°C), rarely dipping below 69°F or exceeding 92°F (33°C), while summer peaks in Shanghai regularly surpass 30°C and can reach 35°C during intense sunshine [1][5]. The average high for June sits at 82°F (28°C), meaning the current 29% probability implies traders are betting against a significant heat spike, as temperatures exceeding the upper threshold would require conditions akin to the most sunny, oppressive days seen in recent years [2][5].

Traders should monitor the immediate forecast for thunderstorms and light rain expected on 30 June, which could suppress peak temperatures and invalidate a "YES" outcome if precipitation arrives early [7]. The primary catalyst is the Wunderground daily record for ZSPD, which will be the sole resolution source; any sudden shift in cloud cover or wind speed, which remains constant at roughly 11.3 mph throughout June, could alter the final reading [1]. While no specific injury or suspension news applies to weather, the dependency on the 25°C light rain forecast is critical, as even a 25% risk of thunderstorms suggests a cooling effect that aligns with the current market pricing against extreme heat [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.