Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s airport temperature on 1 August is usually set by heat, humidity and the chance of afternoon convection, so the market is really about whether the day stays in the typical low-30s Celsius band or gets pushed higher by a hot, dry spell. Historical August data put Shenzhen’s average high around 32°C to 32.2°C, with daily highs commonly near 31°C–32°C and lows around 27°C–28°C, while more localised summaries for 1 August point to an average high near 36°C in broader city data, underscoring how quickly readings can vary by site and exposure.[2][4][10]

The current 0% YES pricing looks out of line with the climate backdrop unless traders are already anchoring to an unusually cool, wet setup at Shenzhen Bao’an. Comparable August records show the city can reach the low-to-mid 30s Celsius routinely, with some historical summaries even showing peaks above 35°C and occasional records far higher, so a settlement range covering a warm-day outcome would normally be the default framing rather than a true long shot.[4][5][8] The key question is whether airport-specific conditions on the day cap the maximum below those broader city norms.[10]

For traders, the main catalysts are the short-range forecast updates, any typhoon or monsoon warnings affecting Guangdong, and whether cloud cover or heavy rain arrives before the afternoon maximum is set. Shenzhen’s August climate is consistently humid and wet, with monthly precipitation often elevated and rainfall days common, so the most important dependency is the timing of showers rather than the monthly average alone.[1][10][18] Because the market settles from Wunderground’s recorded daily high at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport Station, late forecast revisions and any station disruption matter more than citywide averages.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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