Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s heat profile in early August is normally high enough that the market’s **0% YES** crowd price looks anchored to the city’s broader climate rather than to a single hot spell. August averages in the low 30s Celsius, with typical highs around **32°C** and lows in the high 20s, while historical daily highs rarely sit far outside the **28–32°C** band; that makes a settlement above the lower temperature buckets plausible, even if the market is still priced as a near-certain miss on the top end.[4][17][14]

The main reason to resist reading too much into a single forecast run is rain: on 4 August, one Shenzhen-specific outlook has **moderate rain at times** with a **31°/26°** range and around **21.6 mm** of rainfall, while a Guangdong-wide official forecast issued this morning put Shenzhen at **25–29°C** under overcast skies.[1][5] Elsewhere, current-observation feeds show only warm, humid conditions around **28°C** with light winds and cloud cover, which is consistent with a capped daytime maximum rather than a runaway heat spike.[7][18]

For traders, the line will move most on whether the midday to afternoon forecast holds or is revised up after the morning rain band clears. The key dependency is the airport station’s actual maximum on Wunderground, so a late burst of sun, delayed showers, or an updated official bulletin from the Guangdong meteorological authorities could still nudge the realised high by a degree or two. Conversely, if the overcast/rain signal persists through the heating window, the top of the range is more likely to stay subdued.[5][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.