Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s August heat usually sits in the low 30s Celsius, but the market settles on the *single hottest reading* at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport on 5 August, not the day’s average. Seasonal guides cluster the month around 31–32°C with high humidity, while some 2026 forecasts point to a 31°C day high and rain, which matters because cloud cover and showers can cap the peak even when the air feels oppressive.[2][6][17][18]

That makes the current 0% YES price look anchored to the fact that the event has not yet been observed, rather than to any clear signal of a cold outlier. Comparable August profiles for Shenzhen show a wide but still constrained range, with daily highs commonly near 89–91°F, and rare excursions much above the low 90s Fahrenheit, so a result in the upper-20s to low-30s Celsius remains the base case unless a thunderstorm or typhoon band suppresses daytime heating.[1][15][18]

The main catalysts are the live airport observations through the day and any short-notice changes in the forecast from rain bands, thunderstorms or tropical systems in the Pearl River Delta. Shenzhen’s August climate is wet, with multiple sources flagging more than 20 rainy days and heavy monthly rainfall, so traders should watch for whether midday cloud breaks allow the temperature to spike before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, or whether persistent rain keeps the top reading below the usual August band.[2][6][18][20]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.