Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s highest temperature for 8 August is being measured at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport Station, and the live readings are already in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius by late morning. Weather Underground’s daily observations showed 83°F at 5:00 am, 88°F at 8:00 am and 93°F at 11:00 am, while its daily summary put the day’s high at 93°F; that is consistent with a market that can still settle in a higher band if the afternoon warms further, because the resolution uses the observations table rather than the summary panel.[9]

The 0% yes price sits well below Shenzhen’s normal August heat profile, which makes it look conservative rather than obviously wrong. Historical August climatology places average highs around 32–35°C, or roughly 89–95°F, and the station’s own recent history has already reached 93°F on comparable summer days.[3][10][16] Current forecast data from AccuWeather is even hotter, pointing to a high of 97°F with hourly temperatures peaking around 3 pm before easing later in the evening.[14][15]

The main catalysts are straightforward: the afternoon hourly progression, any stray thunderstorm or cloud build, and whether the airport station tracks the broader city forecast or underperforms it. Weather Underground’s weekly/history pages confirm the relevant station and observation feed, while the forecast sites indicate a hot, partly sunny day with only limited rain risk until the evening.[15][9] For traders, the key dependency is whether the station’s daily maximum clears the 95°F/35°C area, because that would move the result into a higher temperature range than the market is currently implying.[10][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 8?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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