Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen is experiencing extreme heat today, with the Bao’an International Airport station recording 88°F (31°C) under sunny skies and 78% humidity, pushing the RealFeel to 104°F. This current intensity contrasts sharply with the market’s 0% YES probability for any outcome above the frontrunner range, suggesting traders are pricing in a significant cooling event by the settlement date of 20 July 2026.

Historical July data for Shenzhen typically sees peak temperatures between 32°C and 35°C, with 29°C representing a notably cool outlier for mid-summer in this tropical region. The market’s heavy weighting on 29°C at 100% probability [1] implies an expectation of unusual cloud cover or rainfall, as comparable years rarely dip this low without a major monsoon system. Traders should scrutinise the upcoming China Meteorological Administration’s seasonal forecasts for the Pearl River Delta, which often dictate late-July temperature swings.

Key catalysts include the release of the 10-day forecast for Guangdong province, expected within the next 24 hours, and any official announcements regarding typhoon activity in the South China Sea. A confirmed typhoon track approaching the coast would drastically increase the likelihood of temperatures falling below 30°C, potentially shifting the frontrunner. Conversely, a dry, stable atmospheric pattern would reinforce the current 29°C pricing, making the next weather bulletin the critical dependency for position adjustments.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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