Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s airport is trading from a very warm base, with current conditions around **30°C** and light showers, while July normals cluster near **32°C** for daytime highs and remain highly humid and rainy[1][4][5]. That makes a high in the low-30s the most natural outcome on a typical late-July day, but the ceiling matters: if cloud cover, rain bands or an afternoon storm suppress heating, the day can finish several degrees below the monthly average[2][5][7].

The current **0% YES** crowd view is best read as a pricing signal of uncertainty rather than a forecast of an impossible event. Shenzhen’s July climate is consistently hot, but also volatile, with heavy rainfall, frequent rainy days and typhoon-influenced bursts that can cap the maximum temperature even when the broader seasonal pattern supports warmth[2][5][7]. Comparable July profiles in the city often sit around the low 30s, so the key question is not whether it gets warm, but whether the airport station records a top end that lands inside the market’s settled range[2][5].

For traders, the decisive catalysts are the rest-of-day weather evolution at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, especially whether showers clear enough for strong afternoon heating or whether convective rain keeps the maximum muted. The settlement source is Wunderground’s daily history page for that station, so any late update in the observed airport maximum, not the broader city forecast, is what will matter at expiry[0]. In practice, the line will move on visible shifts in radar, thunderstorm timing and any official forecast revisions that change the expected peak temperature before the 12:00 UTC close.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 24?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.