Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s heat on 31 July will be measured at Bao'an International Airport, and the market resolves to the day’s highest recorded temperature there in Celsius. July is normally the city’s hottest month: long-run summaries put Shenzhen’s average July high at about 31°C, with typical highs around 31.1°C and lows in the mid-to-high 20s, so a reading in the low 30s is the baseline rather than an upside surprise.[2][18][20]

That context helps explain why a crowd-implied 0% yes looks conservative only if traders are assuming an unusually cool, wet day. Recent July climatology shows Shenzhen often reaches 32–34°C on individual days, and the historical record includes highs well above 36°C, although those extremes are rare.[1][15] In practical terms, the market is sensitive to whether the airport gets the usual mix of strong sunshine and humid maritime air, or whether persistent cloud and rain cap the daytime maximum closer to 30°C or below.[2][14]

The main catalysts are the official airport observations through the afternoon and the day’s weather setup: incoming rain bands, thunderstorm coverage, and any late-morning or early-afternoon cloud build will matter more than the overnight minimum. Shenzhen’s July rainfall is substantial, so traders should watch for forecast updates and radar trends rather than just the seasonal average, because a wet monsoon-style day can shave several degrees off the peak.[2][5][14] The settlement source is Wunderground’s daily history page for Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport, so the final print will be the station maximum recorded before the window closes.[15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.