Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 11?

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Market context

Shenzhen's early June weather sits at the threshold between late spring and full summer monsoon season. The city typically experiences mean daily highs around 30–32°C in mid-June, though the transition period can produce volatile conditions. Bao'an International Airport, the official measurement station for this market, sits on the coast and records temperatures influenced by maritime air masses that moderate extremes compared to inland districts. Historical data from Wunderground shows that 11 June readings have ranged from 28°C to 34°C over the past decade, with most years clustering in the 30–33°C band.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating it as a certainty that temperatures will fall within a specific range rather than an outlier scenario. June 11 falls outside the peak heat window (July–August typically sees 35°C+ readings) but remains warm enough that sub-28°C outcomes are genuinely rare. The market's settlement depends entirely on Wunderground's historical weather database for Shenzhen Bao'an, which updates automatically and removes subjective interpretation from the resolution process.

Traders should monitor the broader South China weather pattern in early June 2026. Tropical cyclone activity, whilst uncommon that early in the season, could suppress temperatures significantly. Conversely, a high-pressure system anchored over southern China would push readings toward the upper end of the typical range. Real-time forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration become actionable roughly 10 days before the settlement date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.