Highest temperature in Taipei on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei Songshan Airport is currently experiencing heavy rain and typhoon conditions on 11 July 2026, with a recorded apparent temperature of 29°C and 12mm of rainfall in the hour, suppressing any chance of extreme heat [2][7]. July is historically the hottest month in Taipei, typically averaging a high of 33°C (92°F) at this station, making the current 0% probability for high temperatures a direct reflection of the active storm system rather than seasonal norms [1][3].

Historical data shows that while July highs frequently exceed 35°C during clear spells, typhoon events consistently cap temperatures near 28–30°C due to cloud cover and precipitation [1][2]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% aligns with these meteorological precedents, as the settlement window will capture the peak of a day dominated by heavy rain rather than the usual summer heatwave that drives Taipei’s record highs [3][9].

Traders should monitor the Central Weather Administration’s hourly updates for any shift in the typhoon’s trajectory, as a rapid clearance could unexpectedly elevate temperatures toward the seasonal average [7]. The primary catalyst remains the storm’s dissipation rate; if the typhoon moves out before midday, temperatures could rise, though current forecasts predict continued rain through the afternoon, keeping the day firmly below high-temperature thresholds [2][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Taipei on July 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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FAQ

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