Highest temperature in Taipei on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei Songshan Airport is already trading in a heat-heavy band, with the market’s main line sitting around **36°C** and only a small tail on **37°C or higher**. That pricing fits the broader July pattern in Taipei, where the month is typically the hottest of the year and average daytime highs sit around **34°C**, while the all-time city record is **39.3°C**.[1][4]

For a 22 July settlement, the key question is not whether it will be warm, but whether the day gets a late push from sunshine after morning cloud or whether convection caps the top end. Current local forecasts point to cloud cover early, then a mix of sun and cloud with a chance of local thunderstorms, which matters because storms can both suppress peak temperature and also arrive after the daily high has already printed.[2][3] Wunderground’s own history page for Songshan Airport is the settlement source, so traders will be watching the intraday maximum there rather than generic Taipei readings.[1] The 0% implied chance on anything above the main band is consistent with a market that expects a familiar summer high rather than an extreme spike, but any forecast upgrade to prolonged sunshine, weaker wind, or delayed showers would be the obvious catalyst for the upper ranges to reprice.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Taipei on July 22?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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