Highest temperature in Taipei on June 2?

Market context

The settlement hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport on 2 June 2026. This is a straightforward meteorological measurement with no discretion in how the data resolves; Wunderground's historical records provide the definitive source. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature range options available or treating this as a calibration exercise rather than a genuine forecast.

June temperatures in Taipei typically range between 28–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. Historical data from previous June 2nd readings at Songshan Airport show consistent patterns: the station regularly records highs in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with extreme heat events pushing toward 37–38°C roughly once per decade. The 2023 and 2024 June periods saw temperatures cluster around 31–33°C on comparable dates, providing a baseline for what constitutes typical versus anomalous conditions.

The key variable affecting June 2026 temperatures will be the strength and positioning of the Pacific high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity in the preceding weeks. Taiwan's meteorological agency typically issues seasonal forecasts by late May, which traders should monitor for any signals of unusual heat or monsoon patterns. El Niño or La Niña conditions persisting into early summer could shift the distribution meaningfully, though current climate models remain uncertain at that lead time. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 2 June, allowing only morning temperature data to count toward resolution.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Taipei on June 2?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.