Highest temperature in Taipei on June 7?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Taipei's weather on 7 June 2026 will determine which temperature band captures the day's peak reading at Songshan Airport Station, the official measurement point for this market. Early June sits within Taiwan's pre-monsoon season, when subtropical high-pressure systems typically dominate and afternoon temperatures routinely exceed 30°C. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's thermal range despite the market resolving before local evening hours.

Historical June data from Songshan Airport shows median highs around 31–33°C, with occasional spikes toward 35°C during heat waves driven by westerly wind patterns from mainland China. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity; comparable early-June markets in subtropical regions typically see wider probability distributions across multiple ranges. Seasonal variability in Taiwan's early summer is modest enough that outlier temperatures above 36°C or below 28°C remain statistical outliers rather than routine occurrences.

Traders should monitor weather forecasts from late May onwards, particularly any alerts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration regarding heat waves or unusual pressure systems. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation state heading into June 2026 will influence broader Pacific patterns, though regional forecasts become reliable only 10–14 days before the event. Wunderground's historical data feed provides the sole authoritative source, so familiarity with its interface and any potential reporting delays is essential for settlement verification.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.