Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s early-August heat usually sits in the low 30s Celsius, with monthly averages around 31°C and typical August highs around 33–35°C, so a 0% crowd-implied chance of the market landing in the top range only makes sense if traders think the day stays well below the city’s more extreme summertime spikes.[2][7][16] Historical data underline why this is a temperature, not a certainty, market: Tokyo’s record high in the available climate series is 37.3°C, set in August 1994, while the wider Japan August record is far higher, showing how rare the very hottest outcomes are.[1][11]

For traders, the key catalyst is the actual Tokyo Haneda Airport Station reading on the day, because the market settles on the highest temperature recorded there before the 12:00 UTC close of the settlement window.[Market description] That means the decisive move can come from a late-morning warm-up rather than the first reading after midnight UTC, and an overcast start does not rule out a late spike if sunshine and wind conditions improve. Short-term forecast updates for Tokyo, plus any heat advisories or storm-related cloud cover in the build-up, are the main dependencies to watch, since August heat in the city is often humid but can still produce very different intraday peaks from one day to the next.[2][3][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.