Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s August heat is usually driven by a narrow band of outcomes rather than a single clean forecast line: typical daily highs are around 31°C, but long-run records show Tokyo has reached 39°C in August, and recent history includes several very hot late-summer spells across Japan.[1][3] That matters for a market currently pricing **0% YES**, because even if the base rate favours the low 30s, the tail risk sits far above the average and is not trivial in a month that is climatologically the hottest in Tokyo.[1][2]

For this settlement, the key number is the **highest temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station** on 2 August, not the daily average or the city-wide headline forecast.[18] Traders should watch the late-morning and early-afternoon heating cycle, any official heat warnings, and whether sea-breeze or cloud cover limits the peak; Tokyo’s August highs can stay near the mid-30s in hotter years, but they are often capped by humidity, rain bands, or marine air.[4][12] AccuWeather’s August 2026 outlook has daily highs ranging from 82° to 90°F, which is roughly 28–32°C, pointing to a baseline well below the most extreme bins.[6]

Recent Japanese summers have shown that the upper tail can still be reached, with the country logging record heat in 2025 and Tokyo itself recording prolonged runs of 35°C-plus days.[3][8][19] That history is most relevant if the synoptic pattern turns strongly hot and dry; absent that, the more likely outcome remains a high in the low- to mid-30s, which would need to clear the market’s implied zero only if a genuine spike develops at Haneda.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.