Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s temperature on 4 August is the key driver here, with the market resolving off the day’s highest reading at Haneda Airport Station. The current 0% YES crowd price sits well below what August climatology normally implies: Tokyo’s August forecast and long-run guides point to daytime highs around **31°C to 31.5°C**, with monthly averages in the mid-20s overnight and frequent humidity-driven heat.[1][9][16] That makes a sub-zero probability look more like a reflection of market framing or timing than weather physics, because the settled outcome is not about reaching an extreme heatwave threshold, only which temperature band contains the day’s maximum.[1][10]

Historical context also leans towards a materially warmer reading than the market implies. Japan Meteorological Agency data for Tokyo in early August 2026 already shows daily maxima in the mid-30s at several Tokyo-area stations, including Haneda itself at **35.6°C** on 1 August and **33.0°C** on 2 August, alongside Tokyo city readings above **35°C**.[10] Comparable August profiles from broader forecast services place Tokyo around **30–33°C** with monsoon-season humidity and periodic rainfall, while several guides note that short-lived afternoon spikes can exceed the average high even when the day is not exceptionally hot overall.[3][11][14][18]

The main catalysts are the morning-to-afternoon heating profile, cloud cover, and any shower or storm activity that clips the afternoon maximum before the 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off. Timeanddate’s hourly forecast already shows Tokyo starting the day in the low-to-mid 20s °C before the usual climb, so traders should watch whether the cloud/rain signal persists into the local afternoon or whether clear intervals allow a sharper peak.[2][7] Any change in typhoon-track forecasts, rainfall timing, or a revised Wunderground history entry for Haneda will matter more than the headline monthly average, because this market settles on the single highest observed temperature rather than a daily mean.[7][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.