Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda’s highest temperature on 5 August is settled from the day’s maximum reading at the airport station, not from city-wide averages, so the key question is whether the airport gets a brief afternoon surge rather than whether Tokyo is broadly hot. With the market currently showing 0% YES, the pricing implies the crowd sees the reported top temperature as landing outside the nominated YES range, which is consistent with the fact that the market resolves only on a single station-specific peak.

The available August guidance points to a warm but not extreme setup: AccuWeather’s Tokyo monthly forecast puts 5 August around 30°C/86°F, with daily highs through the week mostly in the low to upper 30s Celsius equivalent only at other times in the month, while timeanddate’s hourly outlook for 5 August shows temperatures rising from the high teens Celsius before the afternoon peak, suggesting a normal summer profile rather than a standout heat spike[1][2]. Japanese Meteorological Agency station data for Tokyo on 1–2 August already showed highs of 36.5°C and 35.3°C at the main Tokyo station, but Haneda’s own 2026 daily table is the more relevant comparator because local coastal conditions can run cooler than inland parts of the city[10][15].

Traders should watch the day’s timing of sun, cloud and rainfall rather than any headline city forecast. The more important catalyst is whether the morning and early-afternoon model updates keep 5 August in the low-30s Celsius at Haneda or allow a hotter-than-expected late peak; if showers develop, they can cap the maximum, while clear spells and light winds can lift it quickly. Official Japanese station data and the Wunderground daily record will be the decisive inputs at settlement, so late revisions in local forecast feeds matter most in the hours before the window closes[6][10][15].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.