Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event centres on the peak daytime heat expected at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 10 July 2026, with current forecasts indicating maximum temperatures between 32°C and 35°C. This aligns with July’s historical average high of 87°F (30.6°C) at the station, while recent regional records—such as Tamba City’s 41.2°C spike—underscore Japan’s capacity for extreme summer heat. The market’s 0% implied probability for “26°C or below” is consistent with these baselines, as even the lowest forecasted highs (76°F/24°C) exceed that threshold by several degrees.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s official observation release for 10 July, which typically occurs within hours of the settlement window. A key catalyst is the potential for sudden convective activity or cloud cover, which could suppress peak temperatures despite the 7-day Met Office forecast predicting 35°C. Recent news from the JMA highlights increased humidity and daily rain chances in Tokyo during July, suggesting that even minor weather shifts could alter outcomes. Volume remains thin on Polymarket, with 30°C priced at 35.5% and 31°C at 38%, indicating a narrow but volatile bracket where a single data point could swing probabilities.

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Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.