Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s summer heat on 16 July 2026 will be measured at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, with the market settling on the Celsius range containing the day’s peak temperature. Historical mid-July readings in Tokyo typically cluster between 31°C and 35°C, with Haneda often recording slightly lower peaks than central stations due to its coastal exposure. Recent years show July 16 highs of 33.2°C in 2023 and 34.1°C in 2022, suggesting that a 33°C or 34°C outcome is far more plausible than the current 0% YES probability implies for any non-zero range [1].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily forecast updates issued each morning, which detail expected cloud cover, wind direction, and humidity levels that directly influence peak temperatures. A sudden shift in the Pacific high-pressure system or an influx of moist air from the south could push temperatures toward 35°C, while increased cloudiness or sea breezes might cap the day near 31°C. Wunderground’s real-time hourly data for Haneda will be the definitive settlement source, so any discrepancy between forecast models and observed readings in the early hours of 16 July will be critical to watch [1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.