Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda Airport’s highest temperature on 23 July is usually shaped by midsummer heat rather than any one-off event, and the market is sitting at a very firm **35°C** call at 97% with **36°C** the only meaningful alternative in the current book.[1] That fits the broader July pattern for Japan, where Tokyo regularly runs in the mid-to-high 20s Celsius and can push above **30°C**, with hot, humid conditions common enough that daytime peaks around **35°C** are plausible rather than exceptional.[2][3]

The main thing to watch is the day’s actual heat build-up at the airport rather than citywide averages, because Haneda can differ slightly from central Tokyo depending on sea breeze, cloud cover and timing of sunshine. July in Tokyo is also a wet month, with significant precipitation typical, so a more clouded or rainy setup would matter more for keeping the top reading below 35°C than any late-morning warmth alone.[4] If the forecast has already pushed the airport towards the mid-30s, the 0% YES price on a higher-range outcome looks consistent with the usual summer ceiling rather than a live contrarian signal.[2][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 23?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.