Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 28 July 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. July is consistently Tokyo's hottest month, with daily highs typically ranging between 32–35°C, though extreme heat events pushing above 37°C occur roughly once every three to five years during this period.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating it as a placeholder. Historical context shows that Tokyo recorded 37.5°C on 28 July 2018 and has exceeded 36°C on this specific date in multiple years since 2010. The city's urban heat island effect, combined with typical mid-to-late July atmospheric conditions, makes temperatures in the 33–36°C band the statistical baseline, with higher ranges plausible but not dominant.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early July 2026, particularly any alerts regarding heat waves or unusual pressure systems. Pacific typhoon activity in late July can suppress temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems anchored over the region typically drive readings toward the upper end of the seasonal range. Real-time atmospheric data from mid-to-late July will clarify whether conditions favour typical summer heat or anomalous extremes.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 28?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.