Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s high will be set by the afternoon heat, with the market resolving to the maximum temperature recorded at Haneda Airport by the end of the settlement window. Tokyo’s July climatology leans warm rather than extreme: AccuWeather’s July outlook puts daily highs around 84°F, roughly 29°C, and WeatherSpark says 31 July is among the clearest days of the month, which matters because stronger sunshine can push daytime maxima higher. [1][16]

The current 0% crowd-implied probability sits against forecasts that are materially hotter than average. Japan’s broadcaster FNN said the Tokyo area was expected to reach 36°C on 31 July, while timeanddate’s extended forecast showed thunderstorms and an 88% humidity reading, a combination that can blunt heat if cloud and rain arrive early, but still leaves room for a sharp mid-afternoon spike if the sun breaks through. [4][2] AccuWeather’s monthly range also allows for highs as warm as 88°F, while another hourly outlook for the city shows temperatures climbing into the low-to-mid 30s Celsius later in the day. [1][8]

For traders, the key catalysts are the official Japanese forecasts, the timing of any convective showers, and whether Haneda ends up materially cooler than central Tokyo under airport-specific marine influence. The market only needs the day’s highest reading, so even a brief warm window before storms, sea-breeze moderation, or a late-day clearing can be enough to lift the final range above the crowd’s expectation. [2][13][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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