Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s July heat is extreme, with mid-to-late July routinely hitting 36–40°C and humidity above 95%, turning the city into a concrete jungle[1]. Historical data shows average July highs of 28.4°C but frequent peaks reaching 33.2°C, with temperatures exceeding 30°C for consecutive days[2]. Recent records confirm Tokyo experienced its warmest day in July 2026, with 40°C days already recorded[5]. Given this pattern, a 0% YES probability for any lower range appears inconsistent with observed form, as 40°C is now the norm rather than an outlier.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s daily updates for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, especially the 11 AM–6 PM peak window when temperatures maximise[1]. The Japan Meteorological Agency issued a three-day forecast on 7 July covering 7–9 July, which may signal imminent spikes[7]. AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast projects daily highs between 83°–94°F (28.3°–34.4°C), with an average high of 87°F (30.6°C)[6]. Any announcement of record-breaking heat or shifts in the rainy season’s end could act as a catalyst, given the city’s recent trajectory toward extreme warmth.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.