Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 8?

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Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 8 June 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. Early June in Tokyo typically sits in the 25–28°C range, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's temperature swing across Japan Standard Time.

Historical precedent shows early June temperatures in Tokyo cluster around seasonal norms rather than extremes. Over the past decade, 8 June readings have ranged from 22°C on cooler years to 31°C during anomalous warm spells, with most years landing between 26–29°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a narrow range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Haneda's coastal location moderates temperature swings compared to central Tokyo, typically reducing peak readings by 1–2°C versus inland stations.

The Japan Meteorological Agency issues forecasts through early June 2026, though current seasonal models remain preliminary. Traders should monitor late May atmospheric patterns—specifically whether the Pacific high-pressure system establishes early or delays—as this determines whether subtropical air masses reach the Kanto region by the second week of June. El Niño or La Niña conditions heading into northern hemisphere summer will influence baseline temperatures. Real-time forecast updates from JMA become actionable only in the week preceding settlement, leaving current positioning dependent on climatological ranges rather than specific weather systems.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 8? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.