Highest temperature in Wellington on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s maximum temperature at the airport on 31 July will be set by a single day’s official history page, so the market is really a read on how far the local winter profile can stretch rather than a general city climate view. July in Wellington is usually cool and damp: climate normals put average highs around 12–13°C, with mean July temperatures close to 10°C, and long-run records show the city is moderated by its coastal position and frequent wind. NIWA and other climate summaries describe Wellington as having relatively stable temperatures, with winter highs typically in the low teens rather than anything much warmer.[11][15][6]

That matters for a market where the crowd currently assigns 0% to a YES outcome. On that framing, anything well above the seasonal norm needs a genuine weather setup rather than a routine mild day. The key historical comparison is that Wellington’s winter highs normally cluster around the low teens, so a much warmer reading would usually require a strong northerly flow, clear skies and limited marine influence; absent that, the most probable range is anchored far below summer-like levels.[11][15][6]

Traders should watch the synoptic setup in the days before settlement, especially wind direction and the passage of any fronts, because Wellington’s temperature can shift quickly with changes in airflow. The decisive data point will be the Wunderground daily history entry for Wellington Intl Airport, since the market settles on the *highest* temperature recorded there during the day, not a daily mean or midnight reading. If the airport sees a brief warm burst before southerly change, that can move the result even when the day ends much cooler.[1][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

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