Highest temperature in Wellington on June 21?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Wellington International Airport’s reading on 21 June will be shaped by the city’s early-winter climate, when daytime highs are usually subdued and short-lived warm spells are the main route to an outlier print. At the airport station, June is part of the cool season, which WeatherSpark says runs from 2 June to 10 September, with average daily highs below 57°F, or about 14°C.[2] That makes the market’s current 0% YES pricing look like an extreme tail view rather than a routine winter expectation, especially given that the settlement uses the single highest temperature logged during the day at Wellington Intl Airport Station.[5]

For traders, the key variables are the day’s synoptic setup and the timing of any brief afternoon warming, not the overnight minimum. A clear, drier southerly pattern would normally cap the upside, while a change to northerly or northeasterly flow can lift temperatures quickly for a few hours before the sea breeze arrives. The most useful live input is the airport’s Wunderground history page, which records the day’s maximum and can be checked directly as observations come in.[5] If the market settles at midday UTC, any late-morning spike at the station could matter more than the broader daily average, so intraday updates from the airport site are the decisive catalyst.[1][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on June 21? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Champions League Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.