Highest temperature in Wellington on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daily temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 25 June 2026, a date that historically sits within New Zealand’s coldest month. Current crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome is 0%, yet this figure contradicts active market data where 13°C holds a 98% frontrunner position on Polymarket, with 14°C trailing at just 2% [1]. Historical averages for June at this station show daily highs declining from 57°F to 54°F (roughly 14°C to 12°C) with overcast skies dominating 42% of the period [4]. Notably, MetService NZ recently confirmed Wellington has already shattered its record June maximum, surpassing 19°C earlier in the month, suggesting the 0% crowd probability may reflect a mispricing rather than climatic impossibility [6].

Traders must monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, which will publish the highest temperature for all times on 25 June at the NZWN station [1]. Key catalysts include shifting frontal systems and wind strength, which ensemble spreads indicate are tightly clustering outcomes between 15–17°C for the preceding day, 24 June [2]. Any sudden warm-air advection or clearing skies could push temperatures above the 13°C threshold, directly impacting the market’s binary outcome. While no specific injury or suspension news applies to weather, traders should watch MetService NZ forecasts for unexpected warm spells, as their recent record-breaking alert signals heightened volatility in June temperature patterns [6]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 25 June 2026, leaving minimal time for late adjustments once the day’s peak is recorded.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on June 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Champions League Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.