Highest temperature in Wellington on June 26?

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Market context

On 26 June 2026, Wellington International Airport will record its highest daytime temperature during the winter solstice period, a time when daily highs typically dip to 54°F (12°C) and rarely exceed 62°F (17°C) [1]. Historical data from June shows a steady decline in warmth, with highs falling by 3°F as the month progresses, while recent Polymarket sentiment for this exact date places 11°C as the frontrunner at 98% probability, contradicting the user’s stated 0% YES for any specific range [2]. Comparable cases from early June, such as the 20°C peak on 1 June, highlight how quickly temperatures drop into winter lows, framing the current market’s tight clustering around 11–12°C as a logical outcome of seasonal cooling [3].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the official high temperature, as the settlement relies on the peak reading across all times on 26 June [2]. The MetService forecast for today predicts a high of just 9°C with heavy rain and strong northwesterly gusts up to 50 km/h, which will likely suppress any chance of temperatures climbing above 11°C [10]. NIWA’s seasonal outlook warns that cold snaps may become more frequent in late June, with onshore airflows further suppressing daytime warmth in eastern regions like Wellington [5]. No new weather announcements are expected before the 12:00 UTC settlement window, making the current 9°C forecast a critical dependency for the market’s resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.