Highest temperature in Wellington on June 4?

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Market context

Wellington's maximum temperature on 4 June 2026 will be measured at the International Airport weather station and resolved against historical records from Wunderground. June falls within Wellington's early winter period, when daytime highs typically range between 10–13°C, though conditions vary considerably based on frontal systems moving across the lower North Island.

Historical data from Wellington Airport shows June temperatures rarely exceed 15°C on individual days, with extremes dependent on the timing and intensity of anticyclonic ridges or warm northerly flows preceding cold fronts. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation of moderate winter conditions rather than an unseasonable warm spell. Comparable June days over the past decade indicate that temperatures above 16°C occur in roughly 5–10% of cases, typically when a warm air mass precedes a significant weather system.

The critical variable for this market is the position of the subtropical ridge relative to New Zealand in early June 2026. MetService forecasts and Southern Oscillation Index readings in May will signal whether anomalous warmth is likely. Any sustained northerly flow in the days immediately preceding 4 June would be the primary catalyst for elevated temperatures; conversely, an established cold southerly pattern would reinforce expectations of below-average maxima. Traders should monitor long-range model consensus from late May onwards, as the difference between a typical winter day and an outlier warm event hinges on synoptic positioning rather than seasonal drift.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

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