Highest temperature in Wellington on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Wellington's maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be measured at the airport weather station and resolved against historical data from Wunderground. May falls within Wellington's autumn season in the Southern Hemisphere, typically characterised by moderate cooling as winter approaches. The city's coastal location moderates extremes, with May averages ranging between 8–14°C, though occasional warm northerly flows can push readings into the low 20s.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation of cooler conditions or uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve. Historical May data from Wellington shows the range of plausible outcomes: warm days occasionally reach 18–22°C when subtropical air masses push south, whilst typical autumn conditions settle around 10–15°C. Comparable May 25th records from prior years provide the clearest calibration; checking Wunderground's historical archive for this specific date across multiple years reveals the distribution of outcomes that should anchor positioning.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Southern Oscillation Index and sea surface temperature anomalies in the weeks preceding late May, as these drive whether warm or cool air masses dominate the region. Metservice New Zealand's extended forecasts, typically issued 10–14 days ahead, will sharpen expectations as the settlement date approaches. Unusual weather patterns—such as a late-season tropical cyclone or sustained high-pressure system—could shift outcomes materially from climatological norms.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.