Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan’s airport temperature is being measured on a date that sits squarely in the city’s hottest season, so the market is really about whether the day tops out in the low, mid or upper 30s Celsius. August averages in Wuhan are typically around 32–33°C for daytime highs, with record August extremes reaching about 41°C, so a 0% “Yes” price only makes sense if traders are anchoring to an unusually cool day rather than the city’s normal climatology.[2][4][6][9]

The main comparison point is recent August weather rather than the annual average: Wuhan has repeatedly printed highs in the 33–36°C range in recent years, including 36°C in August 2024 and 40.1°C in early August 2025, which shows how quickly the market can move if heat builds over central China.[4][7] Weather Underground’s own Wuhan pages are the settlement source, but the Daily Observations table matters more than the summary high/low, so the key line for traders is the final observed maximum at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport rather than the headline figure.[10][15]

What matters on the day is the timing of any showers, cloud cover and wind at the airport site, because those are the usual brakes on a late-morning or early-afternoon peak. Polymarket’s current market text points to forecast maxima around 29–30°C for 10 August, with cloudier, showery conditions limiting surface heating, and it also notes that revisions can continue until the first observation for the following date is published.[5] If the airport logs only a brief warm-up before rain or a breeze arrives, the settlement band may stay in the high 20s or low 30s rather than the hotter ranges that Wuhan can produce in August.[5][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

When do sports markets resolve?

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I trade Premier League prediction markets from the UK?

Yes. Polymarket has Premier League outcome markets (title winner, relegation, top scorer). For UK traders wanting GBP settlement and UKGC protection, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer Premier League futures and match markets. Betfair is the deepest liquidity venue for UK football exchange markets.