Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan's August temperatures typically peak in the mid-to-high 30s Celsius, with the city experiencing its most intense heat during mid-summer months. The Tianhe International Airport Station, which serves as the official measurement point for this market, sits in central China's subtropical zone where afternoon highs regularly exceed 35°C during August. Historical data from the past decade shows August 17 specifically has recorded highs ranging from 33°C to 37°C, with most years clustering around the 35–36°C mark.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the market's temperature bands do not extend to capture realistic outcomes for this date. August represents Wuhan's peak summer season, when high-pressure systems dominate and humidity levels remain elevated. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on August 17, 2026, which means the resolution will capture the highest temperature recorded at Tianhe before that timestamp—typically the afternoon peak in local time.

Traders should monitor long-range weather forecasts as August 2026 approaches, particularly any signals of unusual atmospheric patterns or heat dome formations across central China. The specificity of using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures means the exact measurement methodology matters; any station maintenance or sensor recalibration could theoretically affect readings. Regional climate indices and any announced changes to Wuhan's urban heat island characteristics would also warrant attention given the multi-year gap before settlement.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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