Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s minimum temperature on 10 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s final daily extract, not by intraday heat or headline highs, so the market is really about whether the city can avoid an unusually mild night and early-morning dip. The crowd’s 0% YES implies no one is pricing a value case for the lowest reading landing in the relevant YES band, which is notable because August in Hong Kong is typically very warm and sticky: the Observatory’s 1981–2010 normals put 10 August’s mean minimum at 26.3°C, with a mean daily temperature of 28.7°C[2].

Recent comparables point the same way. The Observatory’s August 2025 summary shows 10 August producing a maximum of 34.4°C at the Observatory, underlining how hot the run-up to this date can be even when rain and showers are in the mix[15]. Broader August climatology also shows a very high baseline, with external history tools repeatedly placing Hong Kong’s August lows around the mid-to-high 20s Celsius rather than anywhere near single digits or low teens[7][11]. For this market, that makes any serious move usually dependent on rain, cloud cover and a synoptic change rather than on ordinary seasonal drift[8][10].

The main catalysts are the Observatory’s day-specific past weather entry and whether any late-day showers, thunderstorm activity or a fresher northeasterly flow suppress the overnight minimum before the 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off. AccuWeather’s short-range view for 10 August points to cloudy, very warm conditions with a low around 85°F and only modest rain risk, which is consistent with a high floor for the final minimum rather than a sharp cool-down[12]. Traders should watch for the HKO daily extract to be finalised, plus any last-minute weather alerts or rainfall from the Observatory, because a small shift in overnight cloud and precipitation can change the lowest observed temperature by a few tenths of a degree[1][14].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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