Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong Observatory data for 9 August will decide this market, and the key number is the day’s recorded minimum temperature, not the forecast high. The crowd is pricing a **0% YES** chance, which is consistent with a market that has already passed into the settlement window but cannot resolve until the Observatory publishes the finalized Daily Extract for the date.

The historical frame points to a very warm August profile rather than a cool outlier. Hong Kong’s August averages are around 29°C overall, with typical night-time lows near 26°C, and the month is also described as the city’s hottest and one of its most humid periods.[13][18] For 9 August specifically, the Hong Kong Observatory’s own 9-day forecast called for **29–36°C** with mainly fine weather, extremely hot conditions and only isolated showers and thunderstorms later.[11] That sits well above any threshold that would normally make a low-temperature band decision lean towards the colder end of the schedule. Seasonal guidance from the Observatory also said August to October 2026 should be normal to above-normal temperature-wise.[20]

Traders should watch the Observatory’s final readings rather than commercial forecasts, because the settlement source is the official “Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)” in the Daily Extract.[17] Short-term updates still matter for positioning: AccuWeather and Weather Underground both showed hot, humid conditions on the day, with forecast lows in the mid-80s Fahrenheit and no signal of a major cool-down.[2][6][10] Any late-day thunderstorm activity, cloud cover or lingering sea breeze could affect the minimum if it arrives before dawn, but once the HKO publishes the finalized extract, that data is what will settle the market.[3][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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