Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's lowest temperature on 19 July 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. July represents the peak of Shanghai's summer season, when daily minimums typically range between 24–28°C, though overnight cooling can occasionally push readings lower depending on atmospheric conditions and precipitation patterns.

Historical July data from Shanghai shows that temperatures below 22°C are rare during this month, occurring in fewer than 5% of cases across the past two decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the lowest temperature will fall within the warmest range offered by the market's resolution brackets. Comparable years with similar subtropical pressure systems and humidity levels have produced overnight lows between 23–26°C, establishing a baseline for what constitutes typical summer cooling in the region.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Asian-Pacific monsoon forecast and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early-to-mid July 2026, as these systems can significantly alter temperature trajectories. The China Meteorological Administration typically releases extended forecasts 10–14 days ahead; any announcement of unusual weather systems or cold fronts penetrating southern China would shift expectations. Settlement occurs at midday on 19 July, meaning the final overnight low reading will be captured in the early morning hours of that date.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.