Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 24?

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Market context

Tokyo's late May weather typically sits in the warm-to-hot range, with average daily lows around 17–19°C and highs frequently exceeding 25°C. The 4% probability assigned to sub-10°C temperatures on 24 May 2026 reflects the statistical rarity of such cold conditions during late spring in the Kanto region. Historical records from Haneda Airport show that temperatures below 10°C in May occur almost exclusively in the first fortnight, driven by lingering cool air masses from the north. Since 1990, May 24th specifically has recorded lows between 13–18°C in most years, with only two instances dropping below 12°C—both occurring during anomalous cold snaps tied to delayed seasonal transitions.

The key variable for this market is whether an unseasonable cold front moves south from Siberia in late May 2026, a pattern that meteorologists monitor through upper-atmosphere pressure systems in early spring. Japan's rainy season (tsuyu) typically begins in early June, but early-season frontal systems can occasionally trigger cold, wet conditions by late May. Traders should track long-range ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts from mid-May onwards, as these models gain reliability within the 10-day window. Historical precedent suggests that sub-10°C readings on this date would require a significant departure from normal circulation patterns—the kind of event that becomes discernible only 7–10 days in advance rather than months ahead.

Methodology

We track Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.