World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 World Cup has already produced at least one high-profile penalty storyline, with Harry Kane and Lionel Messi now level on six World Cup penalties taken, underlining how quickly a small sample can swing this sort of market.[1] Historically, misses are not evenly spread: Guinness World Records lists the most by any individual at a World Cup, excluding shoot-outs, as just two, shared by Asamoah Gyan and Messi, which shows how rare repeated failures are even for elite takers.[2] That background helps explain why a low crowd-implied chance can still be rational if the tournament finishes with only a modest number of in-game spot-kicks.

For the line to move, traders should watch team news around designated takers, late injury calls, and whether managers keep first-choice forwards on the pitch deep into matches, because the biggest driver here is opportunity rather than conversion rate. FIFA’s own penalty history shows that several nations have already built strong World Cup penalty records, but those totals remain concentrated among a limited group of teams, so draw-heavy knockout paths and VAR-led spot-kicks matter more than overall attacking form.[3] Recent reports around Kane’s record-equalling tally also show how quickly a single tournament can add to the count when elite sides are awarded penalties early.[1] In practical terms, fixture congestion, rotation, and any suspension or fitness issue for primary takers will be the main catalysts to monitor as the knockout stage approaches.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.