Market statistics
- Total volume
- $9.8M
- 24h volume
- $138K
- Liquidity
- $678K
- Open interest
- $1.1M
- Comments
- 209
Available prediction outcomes (34)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
Russia's State Duma will hold parliamentary elections in September 2026, with the outcome determining which party gains the most seats relative to the current composition. The 4% implied probability for a non-United Russia outcome reflects the party's dominant position in Russian politics and the electoral system's structural advantages for the ruling party. United Russia has controlled the Duma since 2007, winning 324 of 450 seats in the 2021 election despite a mixed-member proportional system that theoretically allows for greater competition.
Historical precedent suggests the 4% probability may underestimate uncertainty. The 2021 election saw United Russia's seat share decline from 334 to 324 despite winning the popular vote, whilst the Communist Party gained ground with improved organisation in regional contests. International sanctions, economic pressures, and military commitments in Ukraine could reshape voter sentiment by 2026, though the Kremlin's control over electoral administration and media access remains substantial. The LDPR and A Just Russia parties have occasionally outperformed expectations in specific regions.
Key variables for traders include whether the Kremlin alters electoral rules before September 2026—the mixed-member system could revert to fully proportional representation or shift again. Economic conditions, inflation rates, and casualty figures from ongoing military operations will influence turnout and regional voting patterns. Any significant political realignment, leadership changes within opposition parties, or unexpected regulatory shifts would merit reassessing the current probability substantially upwards.
Wikipedia Context
-
Whig Party (United States)The Whig Party was a political party in the United States that existed from 1833 to 1854. Alongside the Democratic Party, it was one of two major parties from the late 1830s until the early 1850s and part of the Second Party System. As well as four Whig presidents, other prominent members included Henry Clay, Daniel Webster, Rufus Choate, William Seward, Joh
-
Whig Party (British political party)The Whig Party is a political party in England which is intended to be a revival of the Whigs that existed in the United Kingdom from 1678 to 1868.
-
White Party Miami
White Party Miami was an annual, LGBTQ-based event held in Miami, Florida between 1985 and 2019 to raise money for HIV/AIDS-related charities. Initially the White Party was a single formal evening event. By 1994 it had grown into White Party Week, six days of both officially-sponsored and independently-organized events on the party circuit. Miami's White Par
-
Double-slit experimentIn modern physics, the double-slit experiment demonstrates that light and matter can exhibit behavior associated with both classical particles and classical waves. This type of experiment was first described by Thomas Young in 1801 when making his case for the wave behavior of visible light. In 1927, Davisson and Germer and, independently, George Paget Thoms
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliame… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →