Highest temperature in Beijing on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s late-July heat is usually well above comfort levels, but the market is anchored to the single hottest reading at the airport station, not the day’s average. Historical July data show Beijing commonly tops out around 31–32°C, while the month can still produce sharply higher spikes, including 37°C in July 2024 and 40°C in 2023, so a 0% YES price implies the crowd sees no credible route to an exceptional heat event on 31 July 2026.[7][9][14]

That makes the main frame less about normal summer warmth and more about whether synoptic conditions line up for a brief extreme. Beijing’s July climate is hot and humid, with average highs around 31.8°C and frequent rain, while the all-time July record cited in recent climate summaries is 42.2°C, set in July 1999.[2][18] In comparable summers, the upper tail has mattered more than the monthly mean: the airport can sit in the low 30s on an ordinary day, but a strong heat dome or suppressed cloud cover can push maxima several degrees higher than the seasonal average.[5][9]

For traders, the key catalysts are the morning and midday forecasts, any fresh heat advisories, and whether thunderstorms or rainfall are expected to cool the capital’s airport station before the settlement window closes. The market resolves on the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport Station on 31 July, so even a short-lived afternoon surge matters more than the overnight minimum or the rest of the city’s conditions. With the window ending at 12:00 UTC, attention should stay on the temperature trend through the local afternoon and on whether cloud cover, wind shifts, or precipitation cap the daytime peak.[1][5][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.