Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 31?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in degrees Celsius on 31 May 2026, with settlement determined by the "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Daily Extract once data is finalised. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting traders have not yet engaged with this specific date forecast.

Hong Kong's May temperatures typically range between 28–32°C, with historical daily maxima rarely exceeding 34°C during this month. The Observatory's records from May 2015 show a high of 32.9°C; May 2019 peaked at 33.3°C. Late May sits within the pre-monsoon period, when afternoon heat builds but sustained extreme temperatures remain uncommon. Comparing May 31st specifically to broader May patterns provides limited precision, as individual daily variation can swing 3–4°C depending on cloud cover and wind patterns. The absence of any probability assignment suggests the market has not yet attracted sufficient historical data analysis or trader participation to establish baseline expectations.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts released in May 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks. Broader regional weather patterns—including the onset of the southwest monsoon and any tropical systems developing in the western Pacific—will influence late-May conditions. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 31 May, requiring the Observatory to publish finalised daily data before resolution occurs. Until traders begin positioning, the market's flat probability distribution reflects genuine uncertainty rather than confidence in any particular temperature band.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.