Highest temperature in Seoul on May 31?

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Market context

Seoul's weather on 31 May 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, where the highest temperature recorded across the entire day determines the settlement outcome. Late May in Seoul sits at the threshold between spring and early summer, with the city transitioning into warmer, more humid conditions ahead of the monsoon season.

Historical data from Incheon shows May temperatures typically peak between 25–28°C, though extremes have reached into the low 30s during particularly warm years. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either heavily discounting the possibility of an exceptionally hot day or the market has insufficient liquidity to reflect genuine uncertainty. Comparable late-May conditions from recent years—including 2023 and 2024—recorded highs in the 26–29°C range, providing a baseline for what constitutes typical versus anomalous conditions for this date.

The primary catalyst affecting May 2026 temperatures will be the position and strength of high-pressure systems moving across East Asia during late spring. Early-season heat waves occasionally push Seoul into the 30°C+ range, typically driven by warm air masses from the south. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and broader North Pacific pressure patterns as May approaches. Atmospheric conditions in April and early May will signal whether the region is tracking toward an unusually warm late spring or remaining within historical norms.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.