Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Vladimir Putin has served as President of Russia since 2000, with a brief interlude as Prime Minister from 2008 to 2012. The market tests whether he will cease holding the presidency at any point before 30 June 2026, a window of approximately 18 months from typical market creation. Russian constitutional arrangements allow Putin to remain in office through 2036 under amendments passed in 2020, which reset his term count.

Historical precedent for involuntary removal of Russian heads of state is limited in the modern era. Mikhail Gorbachev's resignation in December 1991 came after the Soviet Union's collapse and loss of Communist Party control. Boris Yeltsin's resignation on 31 December 1999 was voluntary. No sitting Russian president has been forcibly removed through coup, assassination, or legal proceedings since the Soviet period. The 1% implied probability reflects the substantial institutional control Putin maintains over security services, the military, and state apparatus, alongside the absence of credible succession mechanisms or organised opposition capable of executing removal within the timeframe.

Traders monitoring this market should track developments in Ukraine conflict dynamics, sanctions escalation, and any public statements from Russian elites regarding succession or constitutional change. Domestic health concerns or unexpected announcements from the Kremlin would constitute material information. The market's resolution hinges on formal cessation of the presidency rather than speculation about incapacity; an announcement of resignation or removal would trigger immediate settlement to "Yes" regardless of implementation timing.

Methodology

We track Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.