US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by 2026? (2 week pause)

Platform comparison

Market context

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire backdrop still matters because this market only pays out if there is a continuous 14-day stretch with no qualifying U.S. military action against Iran, and recent history shows how quickly the calendar can reset when the two sides exchange strikes or announce a pause with unclear terms.[19][10] April’s fragile two-week truce was followed by disputes over whether hostilities had truly stopped, and prediction-market coverage at the time noted that contracts can swing sharply when shipping disruptions, missile activity, or ambiguous public statements undermine confidence in the ceasefire’s durability.[1][4]

For traders, the key catalyst is not just rhetoric but any fresh U.S. strike, drone or missile operation, or formal announcement that changes the 14-day clock under the contract rules.[19][16] The most relevant watchpoints are public statements from Washington and Tehran, reports from mediators, and whether existing talks in Islamabad or elsewhere produce a clear, jointly confirmed halt rather than a temporary operational pause.[10][17] Recent reporting also shows traders have treated headline developments as highly actionable, with Polymarket flow shifting after Trump’s ceasefire announcement and then again as doubts emerged over ongoing tension in the Strait of Hormuz.[2][4][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by 2026? (2 week pause). Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.