Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will publish the absolute daily maximum temperature recorded in degrees Celsius for 26 June 2026, resolving this market to the specific range containing that figure. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for any outcome, yet this contradicts active trading data on Polymarket where 31°C holds a 54% lead and 32°C follows at 40%[1]. This discrepancy suggests the 0% figure may reflect a technical pause or initial liquidity void rather than a genuine belief that no temperature will occur.

Historical patterns for Hong Kong in June consistently place average highs between 28°C and 32°C, with July and August typically reaching 32°C as the peak[4]. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal forecast for June–August 2026 explicitly predicts above-normal temperatures alongside normal to below-normal rainfall, reinforcing the likelihood of highs clustering around 31°C or 32°C[5]. Recent data from 25 June 2026 saw a frontrunner of 32°C at 100% probability, indicating the market is already pricing in sustained heat[2].

Traders must monitor the official release of the "Daily Extract" containing the finalized "Absolute Daily Max" from the Hong Kong Observatory, as the market cannot resolve until this data is published[1]. The 9-day forecast currently notes a trough of low pressure affecting the region, with sea surface temperatures at North Point recorded at 27°C on 26 June, a factor that often sustains high daytime maxima[6]. Additionally, the Observatory has recently warned of extreme heat in the New Territories with temperatures expected to hit 37°C, a signal that heatwaves are intensifying across the territory[10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Champions League Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.