Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 28 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport will determine the settlement outcome for this market. Seoul's late May weather typically sits in the warm-to-hot range, with daily highs averaging 25–27°C, though the airport station's readings can vary slightly from central city measurements due to proximity to coastal influences and tarmac conditions.

Historical May data from Incheon shows that temperatures exceeding 30°C occur in roughly one-third of years during this period, whilst readings above 32°C remain uncommon but not unprecedented. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either heavily discounting the likelihood of extreme heat or the market has insufficient liquidity to reflect genuine uncertainty. Comparable late-May conditions from recent years (2023–2025) provide the most relevant baseline; checking Wunderground's historical archive for those dates reveals the typical range and frequency of outlier days that might inform positioning.

Traders should monitor the Korean Meteorological Administration's 10-day forecasts as May approaches, which typically become reliable 5–7 days before the settlement date. Atmospheric patterns in late May depend heavily on whether high-pressure systems from the Pacific or continental heat from China dominate the peninsula; early-month weather bulletins will signal which scenario is developing. The airport station's specific location means that runway activity and cloud cover can influence recorded highs, so checking real-time conditions on the settlement day itself remains critical for late adjustments.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on May 28? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.