# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MrBeast's next YouTube upload will accumulate views across its first 24 hours of availability, with the market settling based on which bracket that figure falls into. The creator's upload schedule remains irregular, with no fixed posting cadence, meaning the timing of the next video remains uncertain within the settlement window extending to mid-June 2026.

MrBeast's recent upload performance establishes a baseline for interpreting the 61% implied probability. His videos consistently exceed 50 million views within 24 hours, with several recent uploads crossing 100 million in the same period. The creator's audience engagement and algorithmic favour have remained stable across 2025 and into 2026, though individual video performance varies based on content type and thumbnail effectiveness. Videos featuring high-stakes competitions or record-breaking stunts typically outperform lifestyle or behind-the-scenes content by substantial margins. Historical data from comparable high-subscriber creators shows first-day view counts stabilise within predictable ranges once posting patterns are established.

Traders should monitor MrBeast's social media for upload announcements, which typically precede publication by hours. The creator occasionally signals content themes through Instagram or X posts that correlate with viewership potential. Seasonal factors matter—uploads during school holidays or weekends historically perform differently than weekday releases. The settlement window's June deadline creates urgency; any extended gap in uploads beyond early June would trigger the lowest-bracket resolution, a tail risk that may be underpriced relative to the creator's historical consistency.

Methodology

We track # of views of next MrBeast video on day 1? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Champions League Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Champions League Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Champions League Prediction?

Zero. Champions League Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Champions League Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.