0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually ceased following a sharp escalation in US–Iran military strikes, with the waterway effectively closed to commercial vessels as tensions remain at critical levels[1][4]. Over 150 ships are currently stranded, including tankers and bulk carriers, while throughput has fallen to under 2% of normal daily tonnage[4]. The Strait of Hormuz crisis is ongoing, with shipping traffic virtually shut off after Washington confirmed strikes on Iranian military sites and Tehran retaliated against a US base[1].

Historically, the strait has never experienced a complete, sustained halt in transit calls; even during the 1980s Tanker War, daily volumes dipped but rarely reached zero for consecutive days[3]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability reflects this precedent, yet the unprecedented scale of the current blockade—coupled with Iran’s reported deployment of mines and drone attacks on vessels—creates a genuine risk of a zero-transit day[3][4]. Unlike past disruptions, this closure is state-enforced rather than market-driven, with Iran insisting all vessels secure permits for passage[5].

Traders must monitor the June 17 US–Iran agreement’s implementation deadline of 19 July, when the US naval blockade is required to lift completely[2]. Any delay in lifting the blockade or a reversal of Iran’s commitment to restore traffic could trigger a zero-transit day before the settlement window closes[2]. Recent data shows traffic briefly picked up to 25 vessels on 25 June post-agreement, but the strait closed again on 22 April and remains shut as of early July[2][4]. Watch for announcements from AXSMarine or Kpler on daily transit counts, as a single zero-report would resolve the market to YES[2][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.