Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Champions League Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 93% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 81% |
| France O/U 0.5 | 80% |
| O/U 1.5 | 77% |
| Spain O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| Both Teams to Score | 61% |
| Team to Advance | 60% |
| France 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 56% |
| O/U 2.5 | 52% |
| Spain 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| France 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 47% |
| France O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Spain O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 33% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| O/U 3.5 | 30% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 30% |
| France (-1.5) | 21% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 21% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| France 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| France O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 17% |
| Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 15% |
| O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| France 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 13% |
| Spain (-1.5) | 12% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Spain O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| France (-2.5) | 8% |
| O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Spain (-2.5) | 3% |
| France (-3.5) | 3% |
| O/U 6.5 | 2% |
| Spain (-3.5) | 1% |
| France (-4.5) | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| Spain (-4.5) | 0% |
| France (-5.5) | 0% |
| Spain (-5.5) | 0% |
| O/U 8.5 | 0% |
Market context
The France vs. Spain - More Markets prediction market currently prices this outcome at 93% YES. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 14 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for France vs. Spain - More Markets. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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